The Withdrawal Order

On June 14, 2021, President Joe Biden announced the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan by September 11, ending the longest war in American history. This decision came after two decades of conflict that began in response to the September 11 attacks. The Taliban, which were ousted from power in 2001, quickly regained control of vast territories as U.S. and allied troops departed.

Historical Context: The War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

The United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 with the goal of dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban regime that harbored them. The initial military campaign was successful, and by December 2001 a new government was installed under Hamid Karzai. However, the mission expanded over time to include nation-building, establishing democratic institutions, and fighting a growing insurgency.

Despite committing over 800,000 troops at the peak and spending more than $2 trillion, the U.S. and its NATO allies failed to secure lasting stability. The Taliban insurgency persisted, and by 2020 they controlled or contested nearly half of the country. The 2020 Doha Agreement between the Trump administration and the Taliban set a timeline for withdrawal without requiring the Taliban to sever ties with al-Qaeda, effectively paving the way for their return.

The Doha Agreement: A Precursor to Defeat

In February 2020, the Trump administration signed an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, without the participation of the Afghan government. The deal stipulated the withdrawal of all U.S. and coalition troops within 14 months in exchange for Taliban guarantees not to harbor terrorists. However, the Taliban did not break with al-Qaeda, and the agreement effectively legitimized them as a political entity. Critics argue that this set the stage for the Taliban's military victory by demoralizing the Afghan government and security forces.

The Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces

Despite receiving over $83 billion in U.S. funding for training and equipment, the Afghan army disintegrated in weeks as the Taliban advanced. Many soldiers deserted or surrendered without a fight. The reasons include lack of morale, corruption among officers, inadequate logistics, and the perception that the U.S. was abandoning them. The rapid collapse surprised many, but intelligence assessments had long warned of the fragility of the Afghan military.

Why the War Ended in Defeat

The term 'defeat' is widely used by analysts, including Hadrien Desuin, to describe the outcome. The U.S. failed to achieve its primary objectives: eliminating the threat of terrorism from Afghanistan, creating a stable democratic state, and defeating the Taliban insurgency. Instead, the Taliban are now back in power, and the U.S. departure has been chaotic, with scenes of desperate Afghans clinging to planes.

The defeat is not only military but also strategic. The U.S. has shown that its commitment to allies is unreliable, damaging its credibility. Moreover, the withdrawal has emboldened adversaries like Russia and China, who see American retreat as a sign of weakening power. The human cost is staggering: over 2,400 American servicemen killed, tens of thousands of Afghan civilians dead, and millions displaced.

Key Facts and Figures

• Total U.S. military personnel deployed: Over 800,000
• Total cost: More than $2 trillion
• American deaths: 2,461 (as of 2021)
• Afghan security forces deaths: Over 66,000
• Afghan civilian deaths: Over 46,000
• Taliban control in 2020: About 50% of territory

Pakistan's Role and Regional Dynamics

Pakistan's intelligence service (ISI) has long been accused of supporting the Taliban, providing safe havens and logistics. The U.S. often pressured Pakistan but failed to stop the flow of support. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia also played ambiguous roles, sometimes cooperating with the Taliban against ISIS-Khorasan. The regional dynamics complicated the U.S. mission immensely.

Analysis: The Failure of Democracy Export

Hadrien Desuin's article emphasizes that the U.S. tried to impose democracy through military force, an approach that was doomed from the start. Afghanistan's tribal and religious culture, combined with deep corruption in the Kabul government, made the establishment of a Western-style democracy impossible. The Afghan army, despite billions in training, collapsed within days of the U.S. withdrawal.

Furthermore, the war was marked by strategic errors: failure to secure the rural areas, over-reliance on air power causing civilian casualties, and a lack of understanding of local dynamics. The U.S. also made deals with local warlords that undermined the central government's authority.

Immediate Consequences

The Taliban's rapid takeover in August 2021 led to a humanitarian crisis. Women's rights, which had been partially advanced over 20 years, were severely curtailed. The country faced economic collapse as foreign aid was cut off. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies scrambled to evacuate diplomats and interpreters. The final images of the C-17 cargo planes taking off from Kabul airport symbolized the chaotic end.

The implications for global geopolitics are significant. The U.S. reduced focus on the Middle East and pivoted to countering China. Allies like NATO questioned American reliability. The Taliban are now seeking international recognition, but remain under sanctions. The war in Ukraine later drew further attention away from Afghanistan.

What Defeat Means for US Grand Strategy

The withdrawal and Taliban takeover represent a strategic defeat that undermines decades of American foreign policy. The U.S. entered Afghanistan to prevent it from being a safe haven for terrorists, but now it may again become one. The intelligence community has warned that al-Qaeda and ISIS could reconstitute. The defeat also raises questions about the effectiveness of the American military industrial complex and the limits of nation-building.

The essay by Hadrien Desuin, originally published in Le Figaro, provides a sharp critique of the American strategy and its inevitable failure. He argues that the US defeat was evident long before Biden's order, rooted in a flawed premise. The article serves as a reminder of the limits of military power and the dangers of foreign intervention without a clear and achievable objective.

Source:Le Figaro News